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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans rank as the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) last year with a 63.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 132.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this week's contest, Nico Collins is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among wide receivers with 9.3 targets.

When it comes to air yards, Nico Collins ranks in the towering 97th percentile among wide receivers last year, accumulating an astounding 103.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Last year, the stout Rams defense has conceded a feeble 59.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

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