Nico Collins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Nico Collins

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Nico Collins has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a mere 7.57 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 25th percentile among WRs
The Denver Broncos defense has yielded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (62.4%).