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Nico Collins

Nico Collins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans

Nico Collins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+286/-495).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +325 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +286.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Nico Collins has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.

Nico Collins has notched quite a few more air yards this year (68.0 per game) than he did last year (49.0 per game).

Nico Collins's 45.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 34.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.4 plays per game.

The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) to wide receivers this year (63.8%).

The Miami Dolphins defense has allowed the 10th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.70 per game this year.

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