Nick Westbrook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Westbrook

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Westbrook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (80.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (57.6%).
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have incorporated play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.8 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.6% to 61.6%.