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Nick Chubb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-280).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -280.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Nick Chubb has put up a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).Nick Chubb's 10.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 4.3.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.Nick Chubb has garnered 67.7% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.Nick Chubb profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, completing a mere 65.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.With a terrible rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Nick Chubb stands as one of the bottom receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to running backs this year.Nick Chubb has run for 0.29 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (75th percentile).
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