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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Nick Chubb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +144 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Houston Texans to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the most receiving TDs in football to RBs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a huge 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.

The projections expect Nick Chubb to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line in this week's contest (59.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

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