Nick Chubb Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2026 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+700/-900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1050 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -900.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Nick Chubb has accumulated a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among RBs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
This year, the tough Steelers run defense has allowed a feeble 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Nick Chubb comes in as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, catching a measly 69.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 20th percentile.
With an atrocious rate of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Nick Chubb places as one of the worst receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among RBs this year.
The Steelers defense has surrendered the 6th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the league to RBs: 0.12 per game this year.