My Account Log Out
 
 
Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+530/-550).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -550.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Texans.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
  • Nick Chubb has notched a staggering 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.2 per game) this year.
  • Nick Chubb comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in just 68.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 17th percentile.
  • The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Nick Chubb's trading card this year.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™