reorder

Nick Chubb Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Nick Chubb Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+410/-500).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +490 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +410.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans.

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.

Nick Chubb checks in as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing just 66.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.

The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of Nick Chubb's trading card this year.

This year, the imposing Bills defense has surrendered a puny 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

This year, the weak Buffalo Bills run defense has been torched for a colossal 1.70 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the worst rate in the league.

More Nick Chubb Player Props

Nick Chubb TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Nick Chubb Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12