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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-109/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Nick Chubb's 4.1 adjusted yards per carry this year represents an impressive improvement in his running talent over last year's 3.2 figure.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 7th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 37.0% run rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • After taking on 59.0% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Nick Chubb has been called on less the ground game this season, now making up just 46.8%.
  • Nick Chubb grades out as one of the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.37 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 3rd percentile.
  • The 49ers defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 4.08 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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