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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Texans as the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 43.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The model projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 16.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Out of all running backs, Nick Chubb grades out in the 88th percentile for rush attempts since the start of last season, comprising 57.5% of the workload in his offense's running game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

Since the start of last season, the formidable Buccaneers run defense has allowed a paltry 99.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 6th-best in the league.

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