Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 13, 2026 1:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their typical approach.
The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a monstrous 60.4 per game on average).
Nick Chubb's running effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 4.10 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.20 figure last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect Nick Chubb to be a less important option in his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (20.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (30.7% in games he has played).
Nick Chubb's 29.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a substantial reduction in his rushing proficiency over last season's 41.0 rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's unit has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.

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