Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-112/-126).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Texans, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
The projections expect the Texans as the 10th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 45.4% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.24 seconds per snap, the model projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Nick Chubb's running efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.20 figure last season.
The Raiders defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Nick Chubb has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (33.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (59.0%).

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