Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 8, 2025 1:12 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Nick Chubb's running efficiency has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 4.10 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.20 rate last season.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4-point underdogs.
Right now, the 8th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (37.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
Our trusted projections expect Nick Chubb to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this week's contest (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.2% in games he has played).
With a terrible rate of 2.52 yards after contact (13th percentile) this year, Nick Chubb stands among the worst running backs in the NFL.
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 99.0 per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.

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