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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).
  • Nick Chubb's 4.1 adjusted yards per carry this year represents a meaningful gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 3.2 mark.
  • The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 7th-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • While Nick Chubb has garnered 38.6% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Houston's ground game in this contest at 22.8%.
  • Nick Chubb profiles as one of the weakest running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a lowly 2.56 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.

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