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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run on 45.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
  • Nick Chubb's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.20 rate last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.
  • Nick Chubb has been much less involved in his team's running game this season (43.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (59.0%).
  • Nick Chubb ranks as one of the worst RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging just 2.53 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 18th percentile.

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