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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-112/-112).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -112.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 132.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.In this game, Nick Chubb is forecasted by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile among running backs with 14.3 rush attempts.Out of all running backs, Nick Chubb ranks in the 88th percentile for rush attempts last year, accounting for 59.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.Last year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams run defense has conceded a meager 4.74 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 23rd-lowest rate in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 36.7% rate of running the ball (adjusted for context) last year, the 6th-least run-heavy team in the NFL has been the Texans.The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's group of DEs has been excellent last year, grading out as the best in football.
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