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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.0% pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Nick Chubb's 10.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 4.3.
  • The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Nick Chubb profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, completing a mere 65.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.

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