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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends grade out as the worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Houston offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Nick Chubb is positioned as one of the weakest pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.6 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among RBs.

Nick Chubb grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, completing a mere 51.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 8th percentile.

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