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Nick Chubb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+105).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.24 seconds per snap, the model projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.The Las Vegas Raiders safeties rank as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Texans, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to pass on 54.6% of their plays: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Raiders defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.The Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.Nick Chubb is positioned as one of the worst possession receivers in the league among running backs, completing a mere 67.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile.
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