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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.0% pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Nick Chubb has put up a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Nick Chubb's 10.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 4.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Nick Chubb profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs, completing a mere 65.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 8th percentile.
  • Nick Chubb rates as one of the least efficient receivers in football among running backs, averaging a measly 3.49 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile.
  • With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Nick Chubb rates among the best pass-catching RBs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
  • The 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency against RBs this year, giving up 4.99 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.

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