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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 62.6% rate of passing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football has been the Houston Texans.

To the extent of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.54 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 5th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) right now.

Opposing QBs have averaged 44.0 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the league.

When it comes to air yards, Nick Chubb ranks in the towering 79th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a superb 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Nick Chubb's 11.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 4.3.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

When talking about pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year.

With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Nick Chubb stands as one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

The Ravens safeties project as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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