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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 65.2 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-highest number among all teams this week.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) since the start of last season.

When talking about air yards, Nick Chubb grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

The Buccaneers defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (39.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans offensive approach to lean 5.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nick Caley now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Houston offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Nick Chubb comes in as one of the worst running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 4.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile among RBs.

Nick Chubb grades out as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, completing a mere 51.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 8th percentile.

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