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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-152).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Texans will be forced to utilize backup QB Davis Mills in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Texans being a -6-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 61.9% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.8 per game) this year.
  • Nick Chubb checks in as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing just 66.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile.
  • Nick Chubb checks in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging just 3.76 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
  • Nick Chubb rates as one of the weakest running backs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
  • The Bills defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 22.0) to running backs this year.

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