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Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+105/-125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Texans may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup quarterback Davis Mills.The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.The Houston Texans have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.When talking about air yards, Nick Chubb grades out in the towering 83rd percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a monstrous 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).As it relates to linebackers rushing the passer, Tennessee's collection of LBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Texans are a heavy 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 6th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (just 30.4 per game) this year.Nick Chubb profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing just 71.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile.With a subpar 4.0 adjusted yards per target (23rd percentile) this year, Nick Chubb has been among the weakest RB receiving threats in the NFL.
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