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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Houston Texans

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans rank as the 6th-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) last year with a 63.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 132.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

When talking about air yards, Nick Chubb ranks in the towering 82nd percentile among RBs last year, averaging an impressive 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Last year, the poor Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded a staggering 89.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 4th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Texans offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Nick Chubb has been one of the worst RB receiving threats last year, averaging a mere 4.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile when it comes to RBs.

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