Nick Chubb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-5000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Nick Chubb has notched a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Nick Chubb has been has not been looked to very often his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks in the 1st percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.3% to 75.1%.
Nick Chubb grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the least passing touchdowns in the NFL to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.

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