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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Texans are a huge 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to run on 44.7% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest clip among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Houston Texans to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

In this week's contest, Nick Chubb is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.5 rush attempts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

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