Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 27, 2025 10:07 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.32 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 41.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Nick Chubb to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game in this contest (10.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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