Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns.
The model projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 13.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Nick Chubb has been responsible for 44.8% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Cleveland's ground game in this game at 55.7%.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jameis Winston this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Browns are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Baltimore's collection of DEs has been very good this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the league.

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