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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Nelson Agholor grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a remarkable 77.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

Since the start of last season, the deficient Bills pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see just 123.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's unit has been exceptional since the start of last season, profiling as the best in football.

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