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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Nelson Agholor comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 75.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

The Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) vs. WRs last year (61.6%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been excellent last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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