Nelson Agholor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Nelson Agholor to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this game (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.0% to 91.2%.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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