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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Nelson Agholor's 6.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a noteworthy progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 3.2% rate.

This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for a massive 70.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

This year, the weak Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 8.49 yards.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

Nelson Agholor has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (45.1% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (57.2%).

Nelson Agholor's 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a meaningful regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 26.0 rate.

Nelson Agholor's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 80.0% to 48.1%.

Nelson Agholor's 7.7 adjusted yards per target this year shows a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 9.1 mark.

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