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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Bengals defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.6 per game) this year.

After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last year, Nelson Agholor has gotten better this year, now averaging 32.0 per game.

Nelson Agholor's talent in picking up extra yardage have been refined this year, averaging 6.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 3.17 rate last year.

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cincinnati's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have just 125.9 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Nelson Agholor has been less involved as a potential target this year (44.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (54.5%).

Nelson Agholor's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 80.0% to 53.4%.

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