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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Nelson Agholor comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 75.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

Nelson Agholor rates as one of the weakest wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 16th percentile.

The Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 121.0) to wideouts last year.

Last year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has given up the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a measly 7.3 yards.

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