Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The Ravens O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Nelson Agholor's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 60.0% to 77.9%.
Nelson Agholor's receiving efficiency has improved this season, totaling 9.95 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 6.98 mark last season.
This year, the anemic Jaguars defense has been gouged for a monstrous 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.09 seconds per play.
Nelson Agholor has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).
Nelson Agholor's 3.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a remarkable decline in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 4.9% rate.

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