Najee Harris Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -285 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.
The predictive model expects Najee Harris to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (16.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.5% in games he has played).
Najee Harris's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the NFL: 75th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (46.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the measly 8th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging just -3.0 per game.
Najee Harris ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among running backs, completing a measly 78.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.