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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.

Najee Harris has been given 74.4% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Najee Harris has rushed for 0.39 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (85th percentile).

The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends profile as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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