Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a remarkable 54.4% snap rate (77th percentile) this year, Najee Harris has been as one of the running backs with the biggest workloads in football.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been torched for the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.7%) to RBs this year (89.7%).
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 10th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game metrics across the board.

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