Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 3.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 78.6% to 84.2%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been a less important option in his team's air attack this season (9.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris's receiving skills have tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.5 yards per game compared to 4.1 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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