Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-205/+155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack this season (10.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris's pass-catching performance diminished this season, accumulating just 2.8 yards per game compared to 4.1 last season.

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