Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2025

Updated Sep 16, 2025 2:07 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.1% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 129.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Since the start of last season, the porous Raiders pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 88.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.6 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Najee Harris to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack in this game (3.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.9% in games he has played).
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the measly 7th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -4.0 per game.
With a lackluster 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Najee Harris ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs.

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