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Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.With an elite 10.4% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Najee Harris stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.Najee Harris has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.In regards to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the measly 10th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.7%) vs. running backs this year (79.7%).This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a measly 5.6 yards.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
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