Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an elite 10.4% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Najee Harris stands as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in the league.
Najee Harris has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (19.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
In regards to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the measly 10th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.
The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.7%) vs. running backs this year (79.7%).
This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a measly 5.6 yards.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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