Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 1, 2024 3:46 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
With a remarkable 10.3% Target Share (76th percentile) this year, Najee Harris rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
Najee Harris's 18.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year represents a significant progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 11.0 figure.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the paltry 14th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -3.0 per game.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
Najee Harris's 78.7% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a noteable diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 84.7% figure.
This year, the fierce Bengals defense has conceded a measly 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the fewest in the league.