Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 6, 2024 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more rushes) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the league.
When it comes to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among running backs this year, accruing an astounding 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Najee Harris's 81.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last season's 77.9% figure.
Najee Harris's 5.2 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a material growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 4.4 figure.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 47.8% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.31 seconds per snap.
Najee Harris has been used less as a potential target this year (35.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (46.9%).
When talking about pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.