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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers will be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.

When it comes to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the towering 79th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a remarkable 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Najee Harris's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 77.9% to 81.3%.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's safety corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Steelers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).

Najee Harris's 11.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 16.2.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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