Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been on the field for 54.0% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Najee Harris has accumulated a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's 7.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season shows a material boost in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 5.9% rate.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.2%) versus RBs this year (87.2%).

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Steelers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.