Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
With a remarkable 54.2% Snap% (81st percentile) this year, Najee Harris stands as one of the RBs with the most usage in the league.
When it comes to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among RBs this year, averaging a staggering 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Najee Harris's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 5.37 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 4.40 mark last season.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.