Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team's passing game this season (9.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging just 3.91 yards-per-target vs a 4.94 figure last year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. running backs this year, surrendering 4.89 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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